Is a Victorian Teal Wave Coming?
Less than 100 days out from the 2022 Victorian state election, polls are predicting that its Daniel Andrew’s to lose. The Liberals, like their federal counterparts are struggling with an identity crisis.
Many seats that have been traditionally Liberal could be snatched by up-and-coming Teal candidates, giving voters an alternative to the major parties.
Matt Guy and his Liberals are assuring major investments to fix Victoria’s struggling health system- promising to build a new children’s hospital in the states west and slash elective surgery waiting lists. Focusing on what voters are angry about with the Labor government and the pandemic.
Labor is backing jobs, education, health, and transport areas. Arguing that funding doesn’t need to be taken from the controversial suburban rail loop project and that both health and transport infrastructure projects are extremely achievable.
Experts are predicting Labor is still ahead in the latest polls. An essential survey of 536 Victorians found that 35.3 percent intend to give their first preference to Labor, another poll shows about half of voters, and more than two-thirds young people are considering backing independents.
The state election in November looks as though it will follow similar trends of the federal election earlier this year.
A Teal Wave is predicted to occur in the already marginal sets of Hawthorn, Caulfield and Brighton. These divisions are familiar with Teals that ran in the May federal election. Such as, Monique Ryan in Kooyong, who beat former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg by a very slim margin.
So, what actually is a Teal independent or candidate?
A Teal independent/candidate is typically:
- From an inner city seat, former Liberal party voter or sometimes even member.
- Has a strong stance on Climate Action
- Wanting more integrity in politics and backs state and federal anti-corruption agencies
- General distaste and dislike for the major parties
- Usually runs on another specific issue of choice, e.g health or gender equality
- A prominent and well known figure within their respective communities
Kate Lardner is running in the electoral division of Mornington as a Teal candidate.
Via twitter, Lardner says “I’m running to achieve what the major parties have failed to do for far too long…”
Nomi Kaltmann is also running under the Teal banner for the electoral division of Caulfield. Currently held by Liberal MP David Southwick with a slim 0.1 percent margin.
Kaltmann told Sky News that “she had been dissatisfied with Labor for a number of years and the lack of integrity in the major parties at large."
Angie Mercuri has been living in Mornington for 10 years. She says she has always typically voted for the major parties but would consider changing her vote to an independent, like Kate, if she knew where her preferences were going.
"I usually vote for Greens, but because I live in a traditionally Liberal area - it never does anything. I figure all their preferences go to Labor anyway".
For the election in November Angie is leaning towards Labor. But is dissatisfied with both major parties and feels as though they are being “dishonest and dodgy”, referring to the recent Red Shirts scandal from Labor.
“Liberal isn’t much better and I think they are struggling quite a bit to even be relevant”.
Another Mornington resident, Bill Hargreaves (60) said while he is a traditional Labor voter, a “change in government could be good”.
“[Daniel Andrews] did what he had to do to get us through the pandemic, but I don’t know if Guy would be better or worse because we don’t know what he can do”.
"I don't see Labor winning in November"
Satisfaction with democracy has declined rapidly in Australia. While Labor won at the federal election earlier this year. The share of the vote as peoples first preference at 31.2 percent, was lower than the first preference vote it recorded when losing the previous election in 2019 [Source].
Labor was able to win since it was listed as many people’s second and third choices. However, this means that fewer than one in three Australians voted for change via the Labor party.
Instead, they voted for change in Greens party candidates and for independents. This trend is set to continue across the country in upcoming state elections. Especially in Victoria.
Many people are still angry at Daniel Andrew’s handling of the pandemic; however, they don’t have much else to turn to.
Independent's aren’t bound by party lines and can vote with what they think will be best for their constituents and truely represent the people who vote for them.
Victoria may see a Teal wave in November, moving Australian's further away from our major parties.
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